Hurricane forecast bad news for O.C.’s south swells

May 25th, 2008, 3:00 am · Post a Comment · posted by Gary Robbins, science writer-editor

There’s a 70 percent chance that the eastern Pacific Ocean will have a below average hurricane season this year, which could greatly limit the number of juicy south swells sent to Orange County, especially during the early part of summer, forecasters say.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimates the season, which began May 15, will produce “11 to 16 named storms, including five to eight hurricanes and one to three major-hurricanes. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to16 named storms, with nine become hurricanes and four to five becoming major hurricanes.”

The CPC attributed the decrease hurricane activity to the waning effects of La Nina and the so-called multi-decadal climate oscillation.”

Sean Collins, founder of Surfline.com in Huntington Beach, says, “I would agree tht there will likely be fewer tropical storms and hurricanes this year. Naturally that would also man fewer tropical south swells for Orange County.

“Add to that the abnormally cool water off Baja that will continue to drift down into the tropical zone. I was just in Cabo last week and the water temps one hour north on the Pacific Side was 58-60 degrees one day. I’m sure that was a localized upwelling event from strong northwesterly winds earlier in the week, but there’s still a ton of cold water in the area and that will need to warm up over time, keeping overall water temps abnormally cool in the area.
“So aside from La Nina that is technically not connected to this cold water upwelling off Baja, this could water on the Pacific Coast of Baja will be the primary limiting factor for tropical storms and hurricanes being able to hold strength as they enter Southern California’s swell window.”