Goodbye La Nina. Hello wet winter?
July 16th, 2008, 3:00 am · 5 Comments · posted by grobbins
Rainfall was about 4 inches below normal in much of Orange County last winter, a downturn influenced by La Nina. The periodic climate change prevents many storms from dropping into Southern California, depriving the region of precipitation. (Drought notice.)
The good news? La Nina basically faded away last month, says the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. This might give way to a wet fall and winter. But Bill Patzert, a Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatogist who studies our weather, isn’t banking on it.
“I’d love to tell everyone in Southern California that a wet winter
is on the way, but there is no basis for that forecast,” Patzert says. “With
La Nina on the wane and El Nino up in the air at this point, long-range forecasters are without their main forecasting tools.
“Yet we do have some information based on a recently discovered (climate) pattern that is larger and longer lasting than El Nino or La Nina. It’s called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This sea surface temperature pattern appears as a wedge of cooler- than-normal waters spreading from the Americas into the tropics and is surrounded by horseshoe pattern of warmer-than-normal waters in the mid-latitude. It can last for more than a decade (10’s of years.)
“Historically, when the PDO is in its cool phase — as it is now – rainfall in the American Southwest mimics a La Nina. Remember, the dry 1950’s and 1960’s, and the So Cal
drought from 1987 to 1992? During these dry years, the cool phase of the PDO ruled.
“Based on past history, with La Nina and El Nino absent, history tells us that the deck is stacked for yet another below normal rain year. But Mother Nature can foil forecasters and deliver a pleasant surprise. Remember 2004-2005, when, totally unexpected, we had one of the wettest years in the past century? But this is a long shot for the coming winter. That was a one in 100 year event.”
More Sciencedude
July 16th, 2008 at 8:27 am
So let me understand this, with the conditions we have you can’t tell us if we’re going to have a wetter winter but I’m suppose to believe that the same boobs can tell us what the weather will be 30 years from now. Right.
July 16th, 2008 at 11:25 am
A decision based on a coin toss is more credible than this blog.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
The subtitle of this article, “normal climate shift poses problems for forecasters” - hilarious !!!!
Daddy always said, “Shop three times before you buy.” Since the article has two competing theories (or at least the possiblilty of two completely different results) and we need to break the tie, what does Miss Cleo, the television psychic, say about the topic ?
August 13th, 2008 at 9:48 am
Um, did I miss something? Where in the article do they forecast the weather thirty (30) years from now?
August 22nd, 2008 at 9:05 am
Start reading the Bible. All the big changes in the weather, All over the world. The end is near! Floods, earthquakes, Fires, Big temperature changes. The end is near!
No one can predict the weather or Future!