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JPL says rest of winter could be fairly dry
January 4th, 2009, 3:00 am · 37 Comments · posted by Gary Robbins, science writer-editor
The recent rains have spurred the growth of grass in the backcountry of Crystal Cove State Park. Image taken on Dec. 31, 2008 by Gary Robbins, The Register. CLICK PHOTO to enlarge.
Before the heavy rains of November and December, Bill Patzert, (bio) a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, emphatically said that Orange County would have below normal precipitation this winter. I emailed Patzert on Dec. 30 and asked him to square current conditions with his forecast. Here are his answers to my questions:
Q: In mid-November you said, “I believe that the multi-year pattern known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which suppresses storms in our area during its (present) negative phase, will be the dominant player this winter. “I forecast a 50 percent to 70 percent chance of normal rainfall for Orange County.” Is this still your position?
Bill Patzert, JPL
A: First, I will stick with my dry forecast for Southern California. Yes, John Wayne/Irvine has had 4.66″ of rain since 1 July 2008. That’s 128% above normal for this date, almost 2.0″ more than this time last year. Some interesting facts: 6 out of 10 of all years are below normal in the O.C. When a strong negative phase of the PDO is active, 8 out of 10 years are below normal rainfall. Plus, La Nina is now developing; another dry indicator. Thus, the statistics are strongly loaded for a drier than normal year. If I’m wrong, I’ll be delighted. For now, I’ll stick with the statistics.
Second, the drought is far from over. It takes years to get into a drought like we are now facing, and years to slowly crawl out. Most of our local rainfall rushes to the ocean via our concrete “rivers.” So local rain doesn’t do much to alleviate the drought. Remember, more than 50% of Southern California’s water supply is imported. The great reservoirs on the Colorado River, Lakes Mead and Powell, are still at 50% capacity. (Reservoir data). In Northern California, Lakes Orovile and Shasta are even lower. Two weeks of rain barely made a dent. With increasing population, more environmental restrictions on our imported supplies, and my probalistic dry forecast, the drought is serious and definitely not over. Get used to conserving water … from now on.
Sea surface temperatures drop in the eastern equatorial Pacific during a La Nina.
Third, global warming is real, serious and didn’t disappear in the past month. CO2 and other greenhouse gases continue to rise. These continuing changes in the global atmospheric chemistry have been building for two centuries and will have a residence time of at least 100 years. Year to year, short-term fluctuations in climate like El Nino, La Nina and the PDO will cause temporary coolings and warmings of regional and global temperatures, but the steady melting of the great ice sheets and glaciers will continue into the 21st and 22nd centuries.
Q: I’ve also had email from people who’ve said the December rains are proof that global warming is a myth. I don’t believe that. How do you explain the position to people who do?
A: The physics of all this are well understood. Further, sea level rise is accelerating and we are definitely living in a warmer world. The facts are in and the thoughtful, well-informed scientific consensus is almost unanimous … global warming is real and will have a dramatic impact on all aspects of society. Weaning our society off the fossil fuel fix is one of the imperatives of the 21st century.
To those that doubt or refute any of the above, renew your membership in the Flat Earth Society and continue to attend your local “Let’s All Stick Our Heads In The Sand Society.”
Note from Sciencedude: Click here to read the government’s statement on La Nina. Things are iffy.
O.C. was warmer and wetter than average in 2008
Follow Sciencedude on Twitter at grobbins, and add him as a friend on Facebook.
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I love these “experts” only what they say has meaning, what about 50% of the climatoligists that have a different perspective than this, they say the warming is naturally occuring on the earth.NASA has said the earth is getting cooler, did this expert read that. Maybe this guys head is also somewhere where he can’t see.
Thanks Dr. Pazart,
I’m going now to re-fit my tin foil hat, whip up some algor koolaid &
prepare my back yard beach access, I’m only a few hundred yards from the beach now & want to be prepared when my street is re-named ” New Camino Capistrano”. When the “great ice sheets” melt, will that make the ocean like a big glass of ice water? If so I’ll go get a wet suit!
Dr. Pazart
Instead of insulting people, how about a real debate over the facts and falsities of Global Warming. There is just as many “well-informed” scientific consensus that Global warming is not a fact.
Sure, telling people with opposing facts to “Stick Our Heads In The Sand” is an easy way to get out of having address the truth.
Sincerely
Jim
Sounds like Dr. Pazart is a true scientist in the mold of Al Gore…I’ll be sure to read all his columns in the future…
Never Ending FIght For Freedom-
No need for a wetsuit…with all this global warming air temps will average all year in the mid 90’s and water temps off the coast will be a balmy 90 degrees.
Dr. Pazart-
Please explain why modern science and recent data has shown for the last 18 years there has actually been a “cooling trend” in the US?
You are also aware we are at the end of an ice age when North America and most of Nothern Europe was covered in ice? This has been happening for a million years. Not 20, 40, 60 years.
Dr Pazart (climatologist), are you also aware a Gallup poll of the top eminent Climatologist’s showed 83% believe the global warming theory is debunked. That’s 8 out of 10…83%!!! Only 2 of your collegues agree with you!
Just a few other facts about this idea that the world is getting warmer:
-In South America last winter was one of the coldest on record.
-It snowed in Buenos Aires for the first time in 89 years!
-Peru had such a cold winter…hundreds died because the cold was so intense. Declared a State of Emergency
-Chile has one of the worst winters in 50 years..$200 million of crops and livestock were destroyed.
-Australia had the coldestJune 2007 ever on record!
-New Zealand had it’s coldest spring in 2007 on record also!
One last fact to add:
According to data, the global temperatures in 2007 were the same as in 06,05,04…for the last 10 years! 1998 had the warmest global temp on record! SInce 1998 atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by 4%, but the global temperature has remained flat!!!!
Would you like to join the rest of the climatologists and agree it is debunked?
Stormwatch, thanks for clearing up that water temp thing for me, most of my experience with that kind of thing is ice cubes in my koolaid. I am concerned though, from what I’ve been reading here, extreme cold temp. reading are yet another sign of man made global warming……………..
“6 out of 10 of all years are below normal in the O.C”
What? 60% of the time it is not normal? So what is determined to b normal is based on averages how can that be?
Well that is sad. Apparently JPL has global warming nuts too. I would really be impressed if people like Dr Pazart could predict the weather one day in advance accurately. Seeing as how often they can’t even manage that, I am not terribly worried about a forecast out 50-100 years. In the 1970’s, these same people were predicting global cooling and a looming ice age.
The reality is the earth is an extremely complex system that has lasted 4.5 billion years. In the course of the earth’s history, the geological record reveals massive volcanic episodes that released many more times CO2 then humans have. Surprise! The earth hasn’t melted!
The real motivation behind the global warming kool-aid is socialism. Many of the nuts pushing this agenda want more control over people and enterprise. Nothing works better then a boogey-man scaring people into submission.
OhBoy,
Normal is wide, wild fluctuations in rainfall, temp….
Average is a straight line through the middle of the graph of these extremes that intersect, on average, once every 10 years.
Sorry everyone, my spelling mistake in my first post has led to many. Lets make sure credit goes where credits due. Its Bill Patzert, climatologist.
oops…Good catch N.E.F.F Freedom-
He is not a Dr. I can’t seem to look at his bio…the link won’t work. Must be all the global warming gas that is affecting the link and the internet. Al Gore is to blame for the internet not working…he did invent it, right?
Just to inform Mr. Patzert, in December, the nothern Sierra, 60 miles north of Lake Oriville near Lake Almanor, which the feather river flows from Lake Almanor to Oriville to S.Cal had received 51 inches of snowfall. That was 126% of long term average!
To Storm Watch: Dr. Patzert’s bio link was working last night. I updated it with a new one when I saw your note. It’s working now. Patzert earned his doctorate at the University of Hawaii.
I appreciate your frequent posts. And you’ve shown some good humor lately. But most of the claims you list are wrong or out of context. You can read the entire IPCC report at:http://www.ipcc.ch/
One last thing … People are free to bash Al Gore. And I agree that parts of “An Inconvenient Truth” was condescending. (I’ve heard people make that complaint.) But he was awarded the Nobel Prize. Fewer than 800 people have won a Nobel since the first of the medals was awarded in 1901. Gore’s way of speaking drives me nuts. But he earned that Nobel.
P.S. I meant to say parts of “An Inconvenient Truth” were condescending. Not was.
OhBoy wrote: ‘So what is determined to b normal is based on averages how can that be?’
The confusion probably comes from an unnecessary capitalization
“Some interesting facts: 6 out of 10 of all years are below normal in the O.C. [w]hen a strong negative phase of the PDO is active, 8 out of 10 years are below normal rainfall.”
60% of the time temperatures are below due to the Pacific decadal oscillation. 80% less rainfall too. And that’s the more immediate concern for our area.
As far as Dr William Patzert not being a doctor (had to get info from google cache for the link to http://science.jpl.nasa.gov/people/Patzert/);
* B.S., Physics & Mathematics, Purdue University at West Lafayette, Indiana (1964)
* M.S., Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Honolulu (1969)
* Ph.D. Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Honolulu (1972)
I’m certain all here have a similar background.
Guys:
Moscow Idaho 21 degrees this morning — a heat wave no doubt.
Al Gore, Mr. Internet????????? Now Mr. Global Warming?????
A recent reading of mine:
Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe [by Peter Douglas Ward, Donald Brownlee] University of Washington. Glad we got CO2………
SD Chargers did a great game yesterday……. I think that number 55 of the Colts blew it with a face mask…….
Have a good one. -j
Yes, global warming is real and unrefutable…man being the cause of it…is UNREAL and REFUTABLE….this isn’t the first time the earth has warmed or frozen…only the last time man was still using sticks and stones…explain that!
Jerry….Coastal Orange County is in the 60s. We call this hardship … winter.
OK! I’m turning my sprinklers back on!
Gary-
Facts are facts. What I wrote is PURE FACT and is documented. How can facts on Countries having the coldest Spring on record, or snow in Buenos Aires for the first time in 89 years or all the other facts I listed are “wrong” or “out of context”??? Please do correct me. Everything I wrote is pure data and fact that has been recorded.
I’m interested to hear what I wrote is incorrect.
Another fact and this is from the NOAA: (dated May 8th 2008)
“Warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the southeastern U.S. and parts of the North Atlantic) have, in fact, cooled slightly over the last century.”
Global warming is a keyword for coal burning bashing. Please address the other issues that can cause CO2 buildup/temperature increases before global warming gets relegated to the category of junk science. From a laymans’ point of view, the concept of global warming and CO2 build-up sounds alot like the racial superiority theories and the Jewish race during Nazi Germany. Thank you for your attention.
Gary-
Another FACT from NOAA and goes against what Dr. Patzert says. He says …”steady melting of the great ice sheets will continue….” NOAA says ” this ( sea level) increase is due mainly to thermal expansion and contributions from melting alpine glaciers, and does not include any potential contributions from melting ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica. Larger increases cannot be excluded but our current understanding of ice sheet dynamics renders uncertainties too large to be able to assess the likelihood of large-scale melting of these ice sheets.”
All I know is from my background and years of research and studies there is no scientific data that can back up the fact the earth has been warming. This was a “scare” by Al Gore and his group years back and many scientisits have now backed off the theory of global warming.
Ok, I’ve said enough. Gotta get back outside and enjoy this warm Jan day…hmmmm………
For Sale: Wetsuit, Down jacket, gloves and umbrella.
Storm Watch: How much you want for that umbrella?
Bruce: How on Earth did we go from Patzert’s remarks on rainfall to the Nazis?
I will trade my umbrella for your Al Gore book. I need something to start a bbq this evening.
Gary, you forgot to throw in ‘and he really means it this time’.
Amazing that the science dude thinks Gore deserves his Nobel. There were quite a few errors in that propaganda flick. For example, when he showed the ice core data of temperature and CO2, he said:
“Their relationship is actually very complicated,” he says, “but there is one relationship that is far more powerful than all the others, and it is this: When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer.”
What he doesn’t tell you is that the the temperature changes hundreds of years BEFORE the CO2 changes.
Another error was the hockey stick graph he used in that graphic. It’s since been proven bogus by Climateaudit.org. And if you read the following link, you’ll see that there were quite a bit of unprofessional shenanigans by Mann and some of his help in trying to keep that 1st hockey stick alive.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/8/11/caspar-and-the-jesus-paper.html
Reading the comments here is wonderfully entertaining. If we could get back to the original subject, Dr. Patzert has made a testable prediction based on a hypothesis. That’s what scientists do.
Anybody else willing to wait until June 30th to see if he is right? And even if he is right, that only makes his hypothesis more likely to be true. It doesn’t “prove” it with 100% certainty. Reasonable observers may draw different conclusions from the same data.
You, however, are now free to believe whatever you want. Have a nice winter.
I am not sure where your reader get their expert opinion. They must have been listening to Rush Limbaugh who got his Piled Higher and Deeper in Pharmacology.
There is so much mis-information about the global warming.. like the famous list of 650 Scientists published by Oklahoma Sen. Inhofe published at taxpayer expense. The only problem is that it was all a lie. Most of the people on the list have asked, without any response, to have their name taken off. Some do not have the credentials that they are credited with. I have even seen list of dead people who are “scientists against global warming.” Those are the “experts” you readers are claiming to know about.
Wake up folks. The people you are condemning are your children and grandchildren.
To the bashers, do you really think your tone is productive or lends credibility to your arguments? When you cite sources, why should I think they are any more credible than the ones you’re criticizing? When you identify time periods and locations that contradict global warming, how do I know you haven’t selectively chosen data that supports your position and ignored data that doesn’t? BTW, what is your position on our dependence on foreign oil?
Well Wes, just goes to show ya, even dead people have more common sense than a bunch climatologist “scientists & Dr.s”
“With increasing population” … the drought is not over. What is the source of increasing population? Babies born to immigrants. Public policy makers and elected officials should link the two together.
Nuclear power is the best solution for reducing the use of fossil fuel. No other solution can provide the same power generation capability with zero emissions.
2009 will be remembered as the year that GW theory was debunked. There is a good post by Harold Ambler at Huffington Post that covers most of the myths with data. Icecap.com and wattsupwiththat.com have links to noaa, nasa, giss, and other data so a person can look at the data directly and objectively instead of being told to believe or die.
Another koolaid sippers fantasy, water shortage.
TOTAL bunk.
Ag uses 80% of water,of that 40% is dumped
They want to keep their “quotas”
Just send it where its needed, let the rest flow in natural directions then low low water prices for everyone & enviros can worry about natural species & not some tasty smelt living in man made sewer basins.
Howard-
There are two kinds of people. Those who go by scientific FACT, and those who want to BELIEVE something may happen. It’s fact vs. a theory (debunked). Facts and numbers and record low temperatures and record winters are real and very recent. Show me the data and numbers that show record heat, and increasing temps at a steady rate that shows the world is heating up at the same rate as carbon dioxide increases and we will listen. Show me the facts that show all of a sudden the ice started melting in the last 50 years. Those of us who know it’s a debunked theory understand it because facts show it. We don’t go by a “feeling” or a POSSIBLE theory.
Storm Watch, I think you mis-interpreted my comments. Let me re-state. 1) If there are two sides presenting contradictory data and conclusions, why should I believe one over the other? In Orange County, for example, you can find data that say the latest summer was hotter or colder than normal. A non-scientist, like me, is going to lean toward the majority position. 2) While I recognize that it can be hard for a minority to have its message heard, ranting isn’t an effective communication style. Perhaps I erred with my opening reference to “bashers,” but I do get tired of people talking down at me with incredulity.
Hey Gary…..just read this article today. Patzert is sold on global warming and bases his forecasts based primarily on global ocean temps(SST’s),which leaves him a little short -sighted. More enlightened forecasters are looking at a wider range of globally connected climate factors. On of the best is Ed Berry at http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com…..Ed forecasted the Nov-Dec rains in early November,and is forecasting a possible return to that wet/cold pattern after Jan.25 or so.Warning: Ed’s forecasts are very difficult reading! As for Al Gore gaffes,look at the cover of his book or video…..the “hurricane ” is rotating the wrong way.
Howard-
Appreciate your comments.
However, if records show Orange County had 8 years in a row of record heat I would believe we ARE warming up.
I’m not sure what you are talking about two different sets of data might show we are warming up or we are cooling down. The fact is we look and go by OFFICIAL recorded temperatures and those determine if we are cooler, warmer or stay the same. And you look for a pattern. If you have 8 years of cooling or warming then we have a pattern. If we have one year cold, one year warm, one the same, another one warm, then cold,…etc, there is no pattern.
Like you, I also get tired of people talking down to me who BELIEVE something could happen and tell EVERYONE else what not to do or what to do.
When the facts show we have a serious problem, then something should be done.
Storm Watch, I appreciate your comments, too. My admittedly vague comment about 2 diff. data sets was simply saying that, unless the same data can be interpreted by one group to support global warming and another group to support global cooling, there must be contradictory data sets behind the diff. conclusions. E.g., several mos. ago, Gary Robbins wrote that the temps this past summer (at John Wayne Airport, I believe) were above average, but we didn’t feel them due to relatively low humidity, to which several readers cited NOAA (I believe) stats that showed the temps were below avg. Thus, 2 diff. data sets and 2 diff. conclusions. Regardless, I think the larger issue is we need to reduce our dependence on petroleum, global warming or not.