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Will O.C. get hit by ‘Godzilla’-sized El Niño?
June 14th, 2009, 6:00 am · 50 Comments · posted by Gary Robbins, science writer-editor
Red, yellow and orange splotches reveal warming of equatorial eastern Pacific, the birthing ground of El Nino. Image courtesy of NASA.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported more than a week ago that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific have been rising and could result in a mixed blessing for Southern California: El Niño.
The natural periodic climate change could bring heavy winter rains to California, which is struggling through a long, damaging drought. El Niño can enhance winter storms, helping produce tremendous amounts of rain and snow. But those same conditions can also cause mudslides and flooding.
We contacted Bill Patzert, a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to ask how big he thought this year’s El Niño might become — if it arises. He immediately used the “El Niño of the Century” as a benchmark for comparison.
Climatologist Bill Patzert
In an e-mail, Patzert said, “Remember the monster El Niño of 1997 to 1998? In the fall of 1997, headlines touted a damaging set of fall East Pacific hurricanes that smashed the Mexican coast, sent heavy rains into the Southwest and gave SoCal surfers super southerly waves were. Later during the winter of 1998, a series of Pacific storms smashed SoCal, causing heavy damage along our coasts and deadly mudslides inland. But for surfers, it was a memorable winter.
“Today, hints of a developing El Niño conjure visions of surf and, much needed, rains. But, this definitely ain’t 1997! A rapid intensification of El Niño would be needed. Has this happened in the past? Yes, in 1982, El Niño was late developing and gave us us a wild ride.
“Today, a Godzilla Niño is a long shot. Today’s Niño Pequena will
be fighting a stong negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,
which tends to damped Los Niños. But sometimes long shots come in.
Over the summer JPL oceanographers will be monitoring the Pacific with our space-based Jason-2 ocean viewing satellite data. Big surf, exotic tropical fish off Huntington Beach, and much a much needed soaking would be sweet. Stay tuned.”
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run for the hills………
etc.
Bring a very good snowblower with you.
I hope its a HUGE one!
Woo hoo! I hope the water stays in the 70’s until November like it did that year. The surf was awesome as well…
“Climate Change?” So this is not caused by humans but global warming is? Politics has no place in science.
To Dino: The story doesn’t say El Nino is caused by global warming. It is El Nino is a periodic natural change in the climate.
I would love a rainy season. Rain is calming and we need it. I will look forward to updates!
Time to move out of the flood plain or buy some flood insurance!
Talking about SENSATIONALISM!!!! The headline and content written by this article imply a huge (godzilla sized) event yet the experts are doubtfull in the extreme.
This article reminds me of the South Park episode ” Two days before the day after tommorrow”
What is the point of a POLL on something objective like
rain next year? You lose science points here.
You could ask, is more rain a good or bad thing, but
why don’t you take a poll on what time the sun rises
tomorrow?
BRING IT
It is too bad that Godzilla retired.
I hope it rains every weekend.
Godzilla might have retired. But Mothra didn’t.
(All snarkiness aside…)
We all need the rain, in measured doses…and accurate extended forecasting. The months ahead will confirm if it’s Godzilla or Chicken Little…
I love the rain, just not driving in it.
let it rain, let it rain , let it rain!
The Godzilla sized El Nino will hit in tandem with Bird Flu and Swine Flu epidemics and a 9.0 earthquake, which will generate a tsunami.
We don’t need another El Nino to send killer hurricanes to Hawaii again, like in ‘82 (Iwa) and ‘92 (Iniki).
Enough already!
Love the big surf, rain gets old after a while.
What ever happened to the fire ants?
I remember 1964, when the people in fountain valley found out why it is called “fountain” valley. Better buy your flood insurance now–you are gonna need it. The Los Angeles and Santa Ana River’s will go from little trickles to raging flood waters, blow through the levy’s and make the flood in New Orleans look like 30 cents. Imagine all of the low lands in OC and LA underwater. . . .even a couple or three feet would be devestating
I love want happens after the big storms. The beauty of the wild flowers, green hills and seeing the sparrows get fat from feasting on all the worms!
Temps are rising rapidly in the El Nino region after many years of La Nina or neutral conditions. This will be a multi-year event with the peak in 2010-11. 2009 to 10 will just be a tease. And we won’t be seeing much sun even when it’s not raining. Batten down the hatches!
I can’t believe you’re sensationalizing El Nino and making it sound like it’s a bad thing for us.
Your last big El Nino that you discussed in 1998, let’s talk about that. There was damage and there were crops ruined. HOWEVER, the net economic effect of the 1998 El Nino was a gain of a few billion dollars due to a longer season and less use of winter heating oil.***
El Nino has been happening for thousands of years. It precedes global warming and if it does occur, more power to us.
***Stanley A. Changnon, 1999: “Impacts of 1997-1998 El Nino-Generated Weather in the United States,” Bulletin of the American meteorological Society 80, no. 9: pp.1819-28. (”The net economic benefit was surprisingly positive…direct losses nationally were about $4 billion and the benefits were approximately $19 billion.”)
ScrippsLaJollaResearcher: I didn’t sensationalize El Nino, and I didn’t say it is bad for us. I said that El Nino adds to the potential for flooding and mudslides, which it does. (Saturated hillsides gave way in Laguna Niguel in spring 1998, destroying some houses.) Scripps researchers have publicly stated these same kind of dangers.
My blog post also said that a huge El Nino would be very beneficial because it might wipe out the drought. You commented without actually reading the post.
Go get ‘em Gary!
Are you crazy!!
It never rains in Southern California.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yNibj8LW-Q
Gameon: Thanks for the post. I didn’t know that there’s a contemporary song called, “It never rains in Southern California.”
Just yesterday, the OCR ran a story that “June Gloom” will be with us through next tuesday.
Well, one day later and it’s completely sunny outside.
You guys can’t prognosticate a 24 hour forecast, yet you make dire predictions six months in advance?
Give me a break.
Take your global warming along with it!
KeithM: You misread what I wrote. I reported on Saturday that the NWS believes that the unusually thick marine layer, and high clouds, would be with us through Tuesday, or perhaps longer. (We had a marine layer early today) And I reported that we haven’t had a clear day this month. We still haven’t. As I reported, the NWS categorizes sky conditions, and clear refers to conditions in which there are virtually no clouds in the sky from sun up to sun down. I’m writing this at 1:15 p.m. on Sunday. I’m sitting on my couch in Sunset Beach, looking out the window. It’s mostly sunny, but the skies are not clear. There are lots and lots of puffy white clouds, and it was even cloudier earlier today. The post is accurate.
It’s the Realtors fault!
What will happen to mindless restrictions on water use, and spiraling water rates, when we wake up one morning to find waves lapping at our front door when we don’t live anywhere near the beach?
I don’t care about the people who might have their homes damaged by mudslides. They bought where they shouldn’t have. And same with the people who bought near the beach. Tough luck. You should have taken geology 101at your local junior college.
More rain is better for everyone!
No, it’s going to hit the rest of the state and ignore the OC!
I love the rain….
It washes memories from the sidewalks of life.
good i need a new home anyway
Im new to the area. What months would typically be rainy in this situation?
malc, I remember December and January being real rainy. I hope we get a really rainy winter.
I was in high school for that big el-nino in the 90’s, and I remember the street flooded while I’d stay inside and read “Cosmos” by Carl Sagan. Good times, good times!
Ah yes, wonderful memories of the pouring rain and being a carefree high school student!
Plus that awesome SNL skit with Chris Farley as El Nino…”The Nino.” So great.
Anyway…heres another older link that still has good info in it…
http://www.ocregister.com/ocr/sections/news/focus/article_416548.php
El Nino is a win-win for the US. It’s rainier on the west coast and sea temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean are lower, so hurricanes aren’t as strong. Go El Nino!
George Bush did it.
I pray that El Niño takes all the unwashed out to sea…and restores our Orange Curtain…
I still remember trudging through 3 feet of water in Fountain Valley in fall of 1997 to escape my flooded truck and make it to a friend’s house to wait out the rain for three days and dealing with crazy people at the local grocery store who thought it was the end of the world. I’d like to not repeat that experience, thank you.
Should light up my HD radar storm tracker
~OCWX.Net
http://ocwx.net/ksox_cr248.png
Joe Bastardi covered all of this is January. The U.S. govt meteorologists are 5 months late in issuing an el nino watch.
cant wait for some great surf again! This past winter sucked and this summer is horrible! I just bought a new board and haven’t even been able to break that baby in yet
more comforting to not be able to predict an event of this magnitude, just wondering though if climate scientists have considered how this warming development might go now that the seasonal cooling effect of the arctic particularly is becoming steadily diminished?
Remember people we wiped out the dinosaurs last time with our “Global Warming Ways.” Repent! Repent!