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Forecast: Above average rain through January
November 4th, 2009, 5:00 am · 21 Comments · posted by Gary Robbins, science writer-editor
Federal forecasters said this week that Orange County is unlikely to receive significant rain through Nov. 15. But, there’s some good news. Or, rather, some potentially good news. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says that Southern California is likely to receive above average rainfall between Nov. 1 and January 31st. CPC doesn’t predict how far above normal the precipitation might be. Instead, the agency forecasts general trends based on long-term models of climate. Readers should look at the prediction as an educated guess. CPC also says that an El Nino remains active in the eastern equatorial Pacific. But the agency says in an Oct. 15th analysis, “The models disagree on the eventual strength of the El Nino.” The forecasts reflect the limited understanding of the complexities of global and regional climate and weather patterns.
The only thing that doesn’t remain uncertain is the need for rain. John Wayne Airport has received 0.38” of precipitation since the rainy season began on July 1, or about a half-inch below normal. Since Jan. 1, the airport has received 3.17”, or 6.63” below normal. The county has received below normal rainfall for the past three years, and the region is current listed as being in a severe drought.
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A quick question -
What is the percentage of ‘overall’ accuracy of The U.S. Climate Prediction Center - Year, 5 year and 10 year percentages. Because it seems this body of experts gives a statement one week or month and does a pretty good job of spinning on their heels the next. Overall what is the accuracy of a given prediction actually being realized, like the one in this article?
FWIW, last year I recall the forecasts were very good. They measure the accuracy by a stat called “skill”, and last winter’s skill was one of the best ever since they started making the forecasts. However, with an El Niño year its hard to say if they will still have the same accuracy — different set of conditions that the models might not necessarily handle as well.
Right
Bring it on.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
“Ditto”
Will this make the Oso Resevoir stink more or less?
less
Lets talk about it when it happens please.
It seems like more “storm watch” spin comes up, the less it happens.
I personally believe everything that Jackie Johnson says is truth. The more rain the better.
Did I just read that the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said, “the forecasts reflect the limited understanding of the complexities of global and regional climate patterns”? But they’re absolutly sure about global warming being caused by human activity?
This why we cannot torpedo our economy because of “theories” from these government funded “scientists”!
What a joke. There are equal numbers of predictions that say just the OPPOSITE. I could easlily do as good a job by flippin’ a freakin’ coin!
Blauski: I’d like to see those…. El Nino is quite active…and has really ramped up in the last three weeks, moving from weak to firm moderate intensity. As long as it can maintain or intensify some more, that is a very healthy sign for above average rainfall through Feb.
I’ve lived here long enough to know that mere predictions about So Cal weather are just that; predictions. At the end of the rainy season, you’ll find predictions for both an above average and below average rainfall. I’ve seen it every year.
Where are the predictions for a below average rainy season? I haven’t seen these…
Starting when?
So, here it is November 3rd and no rain in sight. So, does that mean in a week or two its gonna rain even more to receive that “above average rainfall between Nov. 1 and January 31st”?
Don’t see it, don’t feel it. Maybe between December 1, and January 31st, but not much out there now.
The Usual: The story specifically says that significant rain isn’t expected through Nov. 15. CPC is talking about the period from Nov. 1-Jan. 31 — an overall period, not a specific week.
It’s also worth noting that in most El Niño years, the most significant rain in California tends to fall January through March, if it does devlop.
Hopefully, with the rain, people will turn off their sprinklers and conserve water.
However, most of the rain water we get just flows into the pacific as we get our water from the Colorado river.
O.C. should invest in water collection systems. That will free us from Los Angeles, even more so.
It’s always of interest that experts who cannot predict rain
amounts locally are certain to the point of betting the farm
that global warming is upon us and all will be lost if
we don’t repent our ways.
I guess there is no political play in rain.
If you say anything contrary to global warming aficionados like Gary Robbins, he will delete your message.
Censorship is fine for leftists and envirowackos, but don’t anybody else try it.